It is estimated that by 2004 there will be more than 65 million DSL subscribers, and 16 million of those will subscribe to broadband media services. The market for broadband media services is driven by:

• content providers pushing new types of content to the Internet
• new broadband access technologies enabling cost-efficient media services
• broadband DSL services which will enable fixed operators to capture part of consumer's new TV and video services and bundle them with traditional voice services, helping to reduce customer churn and margin pressure
• increasing demand followed by growing market awareness

In addition to media revenues, broadband media services can provide new revenue sources such as advertising, interactive services, and e-commerce revenue sharing. How did the demand for next-generation IP services evolve? Why do telecom operators find broadband media services so compelling? To answer these questions, let's first take a brief look back at the evolution of broadband media services, and how broadband media services can create new opportunities for telecom operators.

Figure 1. Expected Broadband Media Services Subscriptions (in millions)

A little over 25 years ago, operators had no concept of using telephone lines as anything other than carriers of voice traffic to consumers. Before divestiture in the telecom world, and for many years after, the only service operators offered to consumers was basic voice service. The cable and home-video industries were also in their infancy. Other than network television and radio, entertainment meant that consumers went outside the home, to movie theatres, shows, or concerts. The cable industry consisted of a few small start-up companies, basically small groups of people positioning a large antenna, hooking up analogue line amplifiers to feed the signal, and routing the signal to multiple homes. The few cable operators that existed at the time were small and mainly focused on their growing cable-programming customer base. At the same time, telecom operators had a firm hold on voice service. While telcos and cable companies serviced many of the same customers with their respective services, there was otherwise little convergence in the entertainment and telecommunications industries.

Then, beginning in the early 1980's, and especially in the last 10 years, the telecommunications industry was forever changed. The proliferation of the wireless and home-entertainment industries, including cable, home computing, and widespread use of the Internet, has created both opportunities and challenges for traditional operators. Some have experienced bankruptcy or were merged with other companies. The few that remained were faced with new competition from start-up telecom companies, Internet service providers (ISP) and content providers for a share of the growing consumer telecommunications dollar. As many of these start-ups were forced out or merged, the dominant companies that remained had tremendous opportunities to bring more value to the consumer than ever before by providing first dial-up, then high-speed, or broadband, Internet access. Today, substantial revenue increases for telcos derived solely from voice services are limited, because of market saturation. New revenue sources must be integrated into their existing product lines. Enter broadband media services.

Broadband Media Services Market Potential for Operators

The role and scope of the telecom, Internet, and entertainment industries as global powerhouses have played an important role in the emergence of broadband media services. While cable and satellite remain viable markets for home entertainment, broadband media services delivered via IP have applications above and beyond movies and music, for both homes and businesses, and offers several advantages. As Internet content becomes more sophisticated and media companies expand development of digital content in Internet-compatible protocols, the demand for broadband media services will grow exponentially. As a result of this growth, operators will have significant opportunities for generating additional revenue. The telcos' huge base of residential voice customers is a ready market for next-generation media services.

Some of the major benefits of broadband media services include the following:

• The infrastructure upgrades that are required for broadband media services do not involve significant civil and building-code regulation. In other words, to deploy broadband media services in an urban area, operators utilize their existing network infrastructure, so less land will need to be dug up to reinstall new infrastructure.
• Broadband media services revitalizes the revenue potential of the telcos' existing infrastructure by providing new opportunities to service existing customers.
• Broadband media services offers telcos a way to compete with cable (CATV) operators' packaged "voice + CATV services."
• A higher level of security is possible with IP networks. Since users are authenticated, or recognized, truly customized services and marketing opportunities based on specific user interests can be created. This is not possible with current broadcast networks.
• New levels of customization and interactivity are possible, combining Internet with broadcast television or DVD, for example. Bundles of services are no longer pre-defined and schedules become obsolete—users decide on the media they want, and determine on their own when they want to experience it.
• The power of the Internet is taken to a new level with broadband media services, in that individuals can create their own content and distribute it to electronic devices around the world (televisions, wireless phones, laptop computers, etc.) at the click of a button.
• Since services are individual and not bundled, upgrades are done on a per-customer basis, unlike CATV where fundamental changes require upgrades to all served on a common/shared infrastructure.
• Pay TV (CATV or satellite) is an established service in many countries, so there is reason to believe that telcos that offer broadband media services will find an eager customer base willing to pay, providing customers recognize the value of broadband media services over existing entertainment services.

Generating marketing messages that will convey the value of broadband media services to customers will be crucial to obtain new subscribers and for consumer word-of-mouth diffusion to kick in and grow the broadband media services market. In order for telcos to be ultimately successful in deploying broadband media services, they will need to work closely with network and content providers to ensure that services are deployed and marketed effectively to their customers.